Vector Risk Dashboard
Real-time mosquito population modeling and disease risk prediction
Adult Mosquitoes
1,200
Current estimate
Infected Vectors
50
Disease-carrying adults
Breeding Sites
27
Active water bodies
At-Risk Population
100K
0 projected cases
Disease Risk Score
lowRisk Factors
14-Day Risk Forecast
Day 0
Risk: 15.00594358780241%
Pop: 1,200
Day 1
Risk: 13.805468100778217%
Pop: 1,275
Day 2
Risk: 12.905111485510073%
Pop: 1,355
Day 3
Risk: 12.004754870241927%
Pop: 1,425
Day 4
Risk: 11.40451712672983%
Pop: 1,486
Day 5
Risk: 10.804279383217734%
Pop: 1,540
Day 6
Risk: 10.20404163970564%
Pop: 1,588
Day 7
Risk: 9.90392276794959%
Pop: 1,630
Day 8
Risk: 9.603803896193542%
Pop: 1,668
Day 9
Risk: 9.303685024437494%
Pop: 1,702
Day 10
Risk: 9.003566152681445%
Pop: 1,732
Day 11
Risk: 8.703447280925397%
Pop: 1,758
Day 12
Risk: 8.40332840916935%
Pop: 1,782
Day 13
Risk: 8.103209537413303%
Pop: 1,803
Day 14
Risk: 8.103209537413303%
Pop: 1,822
Environmental Parameters
Biology insight: Mosquito development accelerates between 25-30°C. High humidity increases egg survival, while moderate rainfall creates ideal breeding conditions. Heavy rain (>50mm) can flush larvae from breeding sites.
Vector Lifecycle Stages
Eggs
1 days
0
Larvae
5 days
3,000
Pupae
1 days
800
Adults
30 days
0
Population Dynamics Over Time
Temperature Sensitivity
How temperature affects mosquito biology
Optimal range: 25-30°C — Maximum development, survival, and reproduction rates
Transmission Threshold (R₀)
Basic reproduction number — cases generated per infection
R₀ explained: When R₀ < 1, each infection produces less than one new case, and the disease dies out. When R₀ > 1, the disease spreads. Current interventions aim to push R₀ below 1.
Recommended Interventions
Biology-driven action recommendations based on current conditions
Biological Larvicide (Bti)
Apply Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis to breeding sites
Biological basis: Bti produces toxins that specifically target mosquito larvae midgut, disrupting their digestive system before they can develop into adults.
Breeding Site Elimination
Remove standing water and treat permanent water sources
Biological basis: Female Aedes mosquitoes require standing water for 7-10 days to complete larval development. Eliminating water breaks the lifecycle.
Targeted Adulticiding
Ultra-low volume spraying during peak biting hours
Biological basis: Aedes aegypti exhibits peak activity during dawn and dusk. Targeting these periods maximizes contact with adult mosquitoes.
Intensified Surveillance
Deploy additional ovitraps and adult traps
Biological basis: 25-30°C is optimal temperature range for Aedes development. Increased surveillance during these conditions provides early warning.
Model Explainability
Population Dynamics
Uses temperature-dependent development rates based on the Briere model. Larvae survival depends on breeding site availability, which increases with rainfall. Adult mortality increases above 35°C.
Disease Transmission
Based on Ross-Macdonald epidemiological model. Calculates R₀ from vector competence, biting rate, and infection probability — all temperature-dependent parameters.
Intervention Timing
Recommendations target specific lifecycle stages. Larvicides work before pupation, source reduction breaks the egg-larvae transition, and adult control targets peak activity hours.